The National Hurricane Center predicted a 20% possibility of tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico early next week.
A tropical wave that will pass through the Bahamas on Friday and then go westward towards the Gulf of Mexico throughout the weekend is what our forecast team will be keeping an eye on. It is connected to a significant amount of deep tropical moisture.
The wave will be off the Texas coast by Tuesday, August 22. Before the wave swings into Texas on Wednesday, there may still be time for some tropical development.
Models currently do not actively grow this wave into a robust system. The most likely scenario is that this provides Texas with its much-needed rainfall. Although it’s too soon to say where the most rain will fall in Texas, some will likely end up in the Houston region.
Through the weekend and the next week, the theimportantenews advises everyone to check the forecast at least once a day so you are not caught off guard in case something more substantial is able to develop.
The tweet below confirms the news:
For the moment, models do not aggressively develop this wave into a strong system. The most likely outcome at this point is that this brings much-needed rainfall to Texas.
— KHOU 11 News Houston (@KHOU) August 16, 2023
Predictions for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the likelihood of a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season this summer and fall has recently doubled.
According to the report, an above-normal hurricane season is now 60% likely, double the agency’s May projection of 30%. The possibility for a season close to average was 40% in the original forecast, but it is now only 25%.
A busy season like the one predicted means “there is a doubling of the chance of a hurricane making landfall on the East Coast of the United States,” according to Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. However, the NOAA outlook does not predict storm tracks or what locations will get hit.
Compared to analysts’ initial 12 to 17 named storm predictions for May, NOAA now predicts between 14 and 21 named storms. 14 named storms occur on average each year.
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Six to eleven of those named storms, up from the five to nine projected in May, according to NOAA, will intensify into hurricanes. Seven hurricanes are typical.
Two to five of those hurricanes, or one more than earlier estimates, are expected by NOAA to intensify into major hurricanes with more than 110 mph winds. Three significant hurricanes occur on average every year.
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